人工智能革命即將到來(lái)，這可能是一個(gè)最好的時(shí)代，也可能是最壞的時(shí)代。

好與壞，將取決于我們?nèi)绾谓鉀Q人工智能的副作用之一——失業(yè)問(wèn)題。

昨天，我在《華盛頓郵報(bào)》寫(xiě)了一篇文章，分享給大家。

根據(jù)牛津大學(xué)的一項(xiàng)研究，在未來(lái)的十年內(nèi)，近一半的美國(guó)工作崗位將被機(jī)器人取代。這種情況在其他國(guó)家也不樂(lè)觀。

如何為即將出現(xiàn)的大規(guī)模失業(yè)人口提供幫助，是關(guān)心未來(lái)的企業(yè)家和政府都在探討的話題。

在硅谷，目前正在被熱議的解決方案之一，是向失業(yè)工人發(fā)放“全民基本收入”。

“全民基本收入”(英文縮寫(xiě)：UBI，Universal Basic Income)，是指在不考慮每個(gè)人的需求、就業(yè)狀況或者技能水平的情況下，政府為每位公民提供固定的津貼。

雖然馬克·扎克伯格和埃隆·馬斯克對(duì)AI的觀點(diǎn)經(jīng)常針?shù)h相對(duì)，但他們?cè)赨BI計(jì)劃上卻很有默契。

今年5月，扎克伯格在哈佛大學(xué)的畢業(yè)生典禮上發(fā)表演講稱，政府應(yīng)該考慮為所有美國(guó)人提供全民基本收入。馬斯克也認(rèn)為，全民基本收入的普及是最好的解決方案。

硅谷之外，對(duì)UBI的討論已遍及全球。在瑞士、芬蘭、法國(guó)、荷蘭、加拿大等國(guó)家，UBI或已開(kāi)始付諸實(shí)驗(yàn)，或被引為競(jìng)選綱領(lǐng)，甚至有望成為國(guó)家政策。

但反對(duì)UBI的聲音也有很多擁躉，比如美國(guó)前總統(tǒng)奧巴馬首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)詹森·弗曼(Jason Furman)。他認(rèn)為，UBI意味著巨額稅收的增加，“當(dāng)你看到細(xì)節(jié)時(shí)，發(fā)現(xiàn)結(jié)果是行不通的。”

但我認(rèn)為，全民基本收入”代表一個(gè)良好的開(kāi)端，但這還不夠。僅靠UBI，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法讓失業(yè)工人贏得一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的未來(lái)。

這是因?yàn)?，大部分失業(yè)工人并不具備先進(jìn)技術(shù)或人脈網(wǎng)絡(luò)，也沒(méi)有足以應(yīng)付人工智能挑戰(zhàn)的前瞻性。雖然可以憑借意外之財(cái)找到新工作，但很有可能在短時(shí)間內(nèi)被辭退，或者再次被人工智能替代。

因此，我們必須努力尋找一種全面的解決方案，而不僅僅是分配資金。只有這樣，驚人的AI革命才會(huì)帶領(lǐng)我們實(shí)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)造性的文藝復(fù)興。

以下是文章全文，經(jīng)創(chuàng)新工場(chǎng)翻譯整理。點(diǎn)擊閱讀原文，查看華盛頓郵報(bào)官網(wǎng)文章。 

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標(biāo)題：硅谷在“全民基本收入”方面到底做錯(cuò)了什么?

“全民基本收入”并不能刺激大多數(shù)人實(shí)現(xiàn)自身專(zhuān)業(yè)重塑

未來(lái)十年，約有一半的工作將不再需要人類(lèi)勞動(dòng)力。

在不久的未來(lái)，人工智能和機(jī)器人將以迅雷不及掩耳之勢(shì)取代全球范圍內(nèi)的普通職業(yè)和機(jī)械職業(yè)。

這一巨大的挑戰(zhàn)為傳統(tǒng)的“全民基本收入”(英文縮寫(xiě)：UBI，Universal Basic Income)這一概念注入了新的活力。“全民基本收入”，是指在不考慮每個(gè)人的需求、就業(yè)狀況或者技能水平的情況下，政府為每位公民提供固定的津貼。

在這樣的假設(shè)下，我們是不是還要盲目地向每位員工發(fā)10000美元的薪資呢?絕對(duì)不是。

“全民基本收入”能發(fā)揮作用實(shí)現(xiàn)價(jià)值，需要所有被辭退的員工，具備和硅谷領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者一樣的素質(zhì)。樂(lè)觀主義者天真地認(rèn)為，“全民基本收入”將會(huì)刺激員工努力提升專(zhuān)業(yè)水平。

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但事實(shí)上，一個(gè)成功的硅谷企業(yè)家，擁有多項(xiàng)能力，以及企業(yè)家精神、經(jīng)驗(yàn)以及人際網(wǎng)絡(luò)，這些能幫助他們實(shí)現(xiàn)從賺取中等“全民基本收入”到擁有新一代科技帝國(guó)。

但這種事情不會(huì)發(fā)生在普通的失業(yè)工人身上，由于他們的技術(shù)較為落后，肯定不會(huì)成為新一代科技帝國(guó)的締造者。

分給失業(yè)工人的意外之財(cái)可能會(huì)幫助一部分人找到新的工作，但在多數(shù)情況下，這類(lèi)工人在找到新的工作之后，在較短的時(shí)間內(nèi)會(huì)再次被辭退。

多數(shù)失業(yè)工人并不具備前瞻性，無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)人工智能時(shí)代社會(huì)還需要哪些崗位的專(zhuān)業(yè)人員，因此也無(wú)從了解如何理智地使用“全民基本收入”來(lái)為自己贏得一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的未來(lái)。 

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我們必須努力尋找一種全面的解決方案，包括創(chuàng)造新的職業(yè)、價(jià)值和社會(huì)規(guī)范，而不僅僅是重新分配資金。此外，我們需要重新進(jìn)行培訓(xùn)教育，確保所有人都能夠在適合自己的崗位上工作。

為了實(shí)現(xiàn)上述目標(biāo)，下列五項(xiàng)是當(dāng)前需解決的緊迫任務(wù)：

保障生存

當(dāng)務(wù)之急就是創(chuàng)建并支持項(xiàng)目發(fā)展，確保所有人都能有所食、有所居，并享基本醫(yī)療保障。

提升創(chuàng)造性工作的價(jià)值

只有人類(lèi)能夠創(chuàng)造和提出創(chuàng)新項(xiàng)目。目前，人工智能還不能跳出固有的思維模式，只能根據(jù)人工設(shè)定采用最優(yōu)化的方式處理問(wèn)題。

因此，在早期教育中，我們必須確保教育系統(tǒng)不會(huì)成為好奇心、創(chuàng)造力、批判性思維和個(gè)性發(fā)展的絆腳石。我們要增加對(duì)初中和高中天才和資優(yōu)教育計(jì)劃的投資。而在高等院校方面，我們需要?jiǎng)?chuàng)建項(xiàng)目，幫助具有創(chuàng)造潛力的學(xué)生掌握人工智能工具。

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增加社會(huì)就業(yè)

人工智能既不能表達(dá)愛(ài)意和同情，也不能建立無(wú)可取代的社會(huì)關(guān)系，但是人類(lèi)可以。創(chuàng)造性工作雖然無(wú)法輕松學(xué)會(huì)，但社會(huì)職業(yè)培訓(xùn)可以。

我相信，隨著人工智能將產(chǎn)生的數(shù)萬(wàn)億投資，人與人服務(wù)方面的消費(fèi)性支出也將水漲船高，需要人類(lèi)接觸的社會(huì)工作者、醫(yī)生、教師以及人生導(dǎo)師等服務(wù)性工作的需求，將會(huì)高居不下。

此外，客戶與人工智能之間的中介這類(lèi)新型社會(huì)工作將會(huì)被創(chuàng)建。例如，醫(yī)學(xué)顧問(wèn)可能會(huì)使用人工智能診斷工具幫助患者解決問(wèn)題并提供補(bǔ)充性建議。此類(lèi)工作往往屬于高薪工作。

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鼓勵(lì)志愿者服務(wù)

我們需要?jiǎng)?chuàng)建更多的志愿者服務(wù)項(xiàng)目，為對(duì)高技能專(zhuān)業(yè)不感興趣或者擁有全套高技能的退休工人以及失業(yè)工人提供幫助。此外，我們還應(yīng)該考慮向志愿者提供報(bào)酬。

重新定義職業(yè)倫理

每個(gè)人都有實(shí)現(xiàn)自我價(jià)值的需要，從而相信自身的存在是有意義的。然而，工業(yè)革命灌輸了一種錯(cuò)誤的社會(huì)規(guī)范思想，即自我價(jià)值主要源自傳統(tǒng)職業(yè)倫理——如果你努力工作，就會(huì)得到報(bào)酬。但是隨著人工智能的發(fā)展，不斷從事重復(fù)性工作的職業(yè)在未來(lái)將會(huì)完全消失。

因此，我們就需要根據(jù)新的工作模式重新定義職業(yè)倫理。一份工作的重要性不應(yīng)該僅僅取決于這份工作的經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值，也取決于其創(chuàng)造的社會(huì)價(jià)值。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)我們都認(rèn)為工作時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)實(shí)現(xiàn)成功的幾率就越大。我們應(yīng)該摒除這種觀點(diǎn)，并摒棄對(duì)服務(wù)行業(yè)的歧視態(tài)度。 

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人工智能革命即將到來(lái)，與之而來(lái)的將是最好的時(shí)代或者是最壞的時(shí)代。革命的成果將取決于我們是選擇被天真的樂(lè)觀主義毒害，還是努力全面解決問(wèn)題。

“全民基本收入”代表一個(gè)良好的開(kāi)端，但是很顯然這還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。我們還需要進(jìn)一步認(rèn)真探討并在短期內(nèi)進(jìn)行實(shí)驗(yàn)。只有這樣，這一驚人的革命才會(huì)帶領(lǐng)我們實(shí)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)造性的文藝復(fù)興。

◀英文原文▶

What Silicon Valley gets wrong about universal basic income

For most people, it won’t actually be a catalyst for professional reinvention.

Kai-Fu Lee is the chairman and chief executive of Sinovation Ventures, a venture capital firm,and the president of its Artificial Intelligence Institute.

BEIJING— In the next decade, roughly half of all jobs will disappear. Routine and mechanical occupations will soon be replaced by artificial intelligence and robots at an unprecedented rate across the globe. This enormous challenge has breathed new life into an old idea called universal basic income, or UBI, in which the government provides a steady stipend for each citizen regardless of need,employment status or skill level.

So should we blindly give $10,000 to everyone then? Absolutely not.

UBI makes sense only when Silicon Valley leaders project their own personas onto all the workers who will be displaced. The optimists naively assume that UBI will be a catalyst for people to reinvent themselves professionally. Indeed, if we’re talking about a successful Silicon Valley entrepreneur, his or her skills, entrepreneurship,experience and network may successfully help turn a modest UBI income into the next tech empire. But this most surely will not happen for the masses of displaced workers with obsolete skills living in regions where job loss is exacerbated by traditional economic downturn.

Free money given out to displaced workers may serendipitously help a few find work, but more likely, they will just move on to a new job that will also be eliminated soon. This is a familiar pattern we have seen throughout the workforce. The truck driver who once worked on an assembly line in a factory will soon have to learn to become something else. Most displaced workers will not have the foresight to predict which professions might survive the AI revolution and therefore won’t know how to best use the UBI money to ensure a stable future.

Instead of just redistributing cash and hoping for the best, we must work together to find a comprehensive solution, including establishing new professions, values and social norms. And we need to retrain and adapt so that everyone can find a profession that suits his or her interests. Here are five imperatives to get us there:

Guarantee subsistence.

The first priority is to create and support programs to ensure no one goes hungry or without shelter and basic health care.

Maximize creative jobs.

Only humans can create and come up with new innovations. AI today cannot think outside the box, and it can only optimize problems defined by humans. Thus, in early education, we must ensure that the system does not inhibit curiosity, creativity, critical thinking and individuality. In middle school and high school, we should increase funding for gifted and talented programs. In colleges, we need programs that help students with creative potential learn to master AI tools.

Increase social jobs.

AI cannot express love and empathy and cannot build irreplaceable social connections –only people can. And unlike creative professions, which cannot easily be taught, people can be trained in a large number of social professions. Furthermore, with the projected trillions I believe AI will generate, consumer spending will go up and with it, spending on people-to-people services.

This means service jobs that require a human touch – social workers, therapists, teachers and life coaches – will be in high demand. Furthermore, new social jobs will be invented in which humans will serve as an intermediary of sorts between patrons and AI. For example, a medical consultant might help patients trouble shoot and give supplemental advice when using an AI diagnostic tool. Some of these jobs will even be highly paid.

Encourage voluntarism.

We need to create more volunteer programs to assist retired and displaced workers with little interest in or skillset for higher skilled professions. We should also consider compensating people who volunteer.

Redefine work ethic.

Everyone has a need to feel a sense of self-worth and self-actualization – that he or she believes his or her existence is meaningful. Unfortunately, the Industrial Revolution wrongfully instilled a social norm that self-worth should primarily come from work ethic –if you work hard, you will be rewarded. But because of AI, jobs based on repetitive tasks will soon be gone forever.

We need to redefine the idea of work ethic for the new workforce paradigm. The importance of a job should not be solely dependent on its economic value but should also be measured by what it adds to society. We should also reassess our notion that longer work hours are the best way to achieve success and remove the stigma associated with service professions.

The coming AI revolution will bring about either the best of times or the worst oftimes. The outcome will depend on whether we choose to be intoxicated by naive optimism or committed to comprehensive problem solving. UBI is a good start,but it is clearly not enough.

We need to debate earnestly and experiment rapidly. Only then will this amazing revolution lead us to a creative renaissance.

(This was produced by TheWorldPost, a partnership of the Berggruen Institute and The Washington Post.)